Formula 1 Road to 2026
2026 will bring regulation changes in Formula 1, and of course, engines, or power units, are in the list of items that will be subject to modifications. Teams have been preparing beforehand in an attempt to mitigate any potential negative effects the changes will bring.
The hybrid era has been dominated by Mercedes ever since it was introduced. They have regularly won every driver and constructor championship since 2014, only for their streak to be ended by Red Bull in 2021 (Drivers), and 2022 (Drivers and Constructors).
Teams have been eager for a shuffle in the regulation’s deck to try and gain an advantage and start the next era strong. Teams like Ferrari have been through ups and downs (mostly) in terms of performance; however, it seems that recently they have gained quite significant pace and have been able to win a few races in recent years.
Manufacturer Teams
Unsurprisingly, all 3 manufacturer teams fight for the top 3 constructor spots regularly. However, as mentioned before, Mercedes has dominated the hybrid era, with Red Bull managing to grasp titles in the last couple of years. Ferrari has been a victim of their own hands with strategic mistakes that have cost them a lot of points, and consequently championships.
Mercedes
The dominating team in this era has reaped every good seed they sow. They have worked hard for their titles and are without a doubt the best team on the grid. Recently they have struggled with chassis issues that cost them the 2021 Drivers Championship and the 2022 Drivers and Constructors Championship.
Despite all that, they are still the favorites, once they sort out their problems. Lewis Hamilton is by far the most competitive and capable driver on the grid. His experience and precision make him a candidate once Mercedes provides him with a car that can win races without much issues for this coming season.
Lewis Hamilton’s contract ends in 2023, let’s see if Mercedes can keep extending his contract until the 2026 season. Certainly, his input and expertise are much needed to keep the team at the top of the grid in the coming years. It seems that age is not a problem for him, and his physical condition is better than ever.
In a worst-case scenario, George Russell and Mick Schumacher will potentially be Mercedes’ drivers for the near future.
Mercedes will also carry all the R&D they can from this engine into the new regulations; this will certainly put them in a competitive position right from the start.
Ferrari
Ferrari has been through ups and downs during the hybrid era. Sadly, for the fans, they were not able to win a championship. Some seasons have been terrible, with zero wins, others have been better, like in most recent years.
They were even the subject of an investigation when they gained lots of performance, especially in the straights. The FIA conducted this investigation and reserved the verdict. Ferrari was seemingly burning oil to gain extra horse power. Once the FIA started the investigation, Ferrari’s performance drew back to ‘normal’.
In recent years, Ferrari’s performance has improved a lot, to the point where both of their drivers have won races. It seems the team from Maranello needs to sort out their strategy issues, because the engine is good, and the chassis is competitive. At one point during the 2022 season, they were poised as candidates to win both titles.
Let’s see if in 2023 they can sort out these issues, and fight Red Bull and Mercedes for the title. Their newly appointed boss Vasseur comes from Alfa Romeo in hopes of improving the Maranello team from the ‘out of the track’ side of things, strategy being their most urgent thing to improve. The coming seasons are crucial for Ferrari before the regulation changes.
Red Bull (Honda, ford in 2026)
Red Bull was powered by Renault Engines and harvested successful seasons with Vettel. Their transition to the hybrid era was a handful of problems and they lost their winning form. Ever since Renault became a team of its own, Red Bull’s woes deepened.
Being a customer team means that you have little to no influence in the development approach of the power unit. However, winning championships before provided them with more leverage when negotiating the engine's R&D path. Since Renault became a manufacturer, they have prioritized their team over Red Bull, and their approach in development has been the opposite. Renault wanted to play it safe, while Red Bull wanted more power.
This conflict led to Red Bull seeking another manufacturer to keep themselves in the sport. Honda parted ways with McLaren and found in Red Bull a good partner. Rome was not built in a day; it took this partnership a few years to reap the benefits. Honda even revealed that they would pull the plug on the program in 2021.
The decision rushed Red Bull to acquire the intellectual property of the engine and technical expertise.
2021 was the year Red Bull - Honda finally got a championship, this led to Honda sticking a bit longer in the sport. The partnership will end in 2025 and Red Bull will team up with Ford to get technical input and expertise in terms of development.
Red Bull made a huge leap when they became a sort of manufacturer, with a plant of their own to develop their PUs.
Keeping this form will be crucial to the partnership with Ford. Momentum is key in this sport, and if Red Bull falls in a bad rut, it’s going to take a lot of effort to come back to the top. Ford is expecting Red Bull to keep the form they found in the last couple of years so they can yield results as soon as possible.
Alpine (Renault)
Formerly known as Renault, this team is the weakest of the manufacturer teams. They even struggle in the middle of the pack, and getting podiums is far from a regular thing to happen to them.
Before they can dream of wins, they have got to be a competitive team, but it seems they are miles back from the performance the Big 3 can achieve. Their chassis is not the best also, so a mix of a mediocre power unit with a bland chassis is a formula for middle of the pack races.
Their all-French lineup can be an exciting factor for their compatriots, they’re also good drivers. Ocon and Gasly have proven themselves in F1 already. The ball is on the R&D team, albeit they can provide a competitive car to both of their drivers. Alpine can dream of winning races, but this year it seems to be closer than ever.
I believe this is the team that is waiting for the regulation changes with most anticipation. Their power unit is not the best, and for sure a shuffle in the cards can help them develop something that is somewhat relative to the competition in terms of performance.
Customer Teams
Customer teams seem to be suffering more from chassis issues, rather than sheer power and performance. Mercedes powered teams have not really capitalized having the most powerful F1 engine. Ferrari teams have suffered from underpowered engines during most of the hybrid era, but the recent performance boost can provide them with enough power to fight for points.
McLaren
Perhaps the biggest disappointment on the grid, since their change to Mercedes engines. Everyone was hoping for a big boost in performance, but results have been unworthy. McLaren has struggled to fight for the top, their performance has been miles behind the big 3 manufacturers.
New engines mean changes to the chassis and internal works of the car. It means a new development philosophy. McLaren shifted towards Mercedes engines in 2021, the new performance does not come overnight. Hopefully they will continue to improve the chassis.
McLaren has all the variables to be at the top of the grid, but for some reason they still have not leaped towards a more regular performance at the top with regular podiums. When they were powered by Honda, they had an understandable lack of pace; now with Mercedes a new project started on 2021. Hopefully they can continue to work with Mercedes in the long term, and secure a good partner that will guarantee them good race pace.
It’s up to McLaren to develop a compatible chassis and fight for podiums. The team keeps improving. Maybe 2026 will be a great year for them.
Aston Martin
Aston Martin became a team in 2021 after the Racing Point takeover. They were expected to have a boom in performance, but their results have barely been justified. Regulation changes about the rake of the car affected the team that seemed to be progressing in terms of pace. Despite having the Mercedes engine, they have struggled in the middle, and even back of the grid.
With the other manufacturer’s engines having improved, Aston Martin’s pace has dwindled and their progress hindered. If the team does not improve their chassis, they will still be miles behind the pace at the top.
Williams
Economic issues carried out over many years have relegated Williams to the back of the grid. Despite having a Mercedes power unit, the team struggles to get points in each race. They are in desperate need of a huge title sponsor so they can develop the car up to par with their direct competitors.
Not much to say about the team other than their need to get a considerable budget boost so they can gain a performance worthy of their heritage in F1. The team needs to improve their performance to keep itself in Formula 1.
There have been talks about a possible sale of a majority of stakes, or even the whole team itself. With names like Audi or Porsche prowling around for the 2026 season, if Williams does not significantly improve their performance, and heal their economic wounds, it’s possible the team will be sold to a big name.
Alfa Romeo
Alfa Romeo is a mid-grid team. They have been able to climb from the back to the middle of the grid on regular occasions ever since Ferrari upgraded their power unit, gaining significant performance.
Big names like Raikkonen or Bottas have certainly helped the team improve in terms of pace. Alfa Romeo needs to keep an upwards streak so they can start getting points regularly, and dream of an occasional podium.
2026 will be a crucial year for Alfa Romeo, in the hope Ferrari can provide them with a good engine. They, on the other hand, will work on developing a good chassis to pair it with.
Haas
Haas is a small team that just recently moved to Maranello’s brand new Headquarters where Ferrari develops their cars. The access to the facilities may improve the American team’s performance.
Haas lost their title sponsor during the 2021 season due to the sanctions on Russia, they even lost Mazepin as a driver, since he brought the sponsor. This meant a huge blow to their R&D budget, even carrying their underperforming issues to the 2022 season. For 2023, Money Gram is going to be their title sponsor, hopefully the team will start to give us good races.
The team needs consistency in their performances. This is the first step towards improving inside the grid. If Haas keeps dwindling and they are not able to get some sort of rhythm, they will continue to have ups and downs without ever seeing a significant improvement.
For 2026 they will be already accustomed to their home at Maranello’s Ferrari Factory, and hopefully their engine will also be a competitive one. They have all the right variables to produce a great car that can start fighting for podiums and getting points on a regular basis.
Alpha Tauri (Honda)
The team has benefited from the increased performance of the Honda power unit. They even had a race win in 2020, and a podium in 2021; incidentally, this was the time the Honda engine started to gain significant performance.
They usually go for young talent when it comes to their drivers. The Red Bull program is a strong one in this sense. Hopefully they can continue to secure good drivers until the 2026 season.
Alpha Tauri will be at the mercy of the new Red Bull-Ford partnership. This level of uncertainty can be a double edge sword for them. Since this is Red Bull’s sister team, they are at the mercy of their performance in the upcoming years.
Keep in mind that Red Bull now makes their own engines and Ford will come to provide technical input and assistance, branding the engine. It is a good thing that Red Bull got to start producing their own engines, rather than depend on Renault or another company. This will benefit Alpha Tauri as a team, albeit, the engine is competitive.
Let’s see what these next couple of seasons can bring to all the teams in the grid. Everyone is on the edge and trying to somewhat work the engines and cars for the new season. Smaller, lighter cars are ahead, with engines relying more and more on hybrid and electric technologies.
Rules force teams to spend less and less on R&D, with more restrictions on the horizon. Let’s see if this attempt to level the playing field actually works for the FIA and Formula 1.
What are your thoughts on the upcoming changes? Let me know in the comments below.
Happy Racing.
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